The Praized Blog

Very interesting first half-day yesterday at the Kelsey Group’s Drilling Down on Local ‘08. The theme of the conference is “Marketplaces”. It regroups products such as classifieds, auctions and vertical sites. Here are highlights from the first two sessions:

As an introduction, the Kelsey Group’s team provided us with some background information on “Marketplaces”. Neal Polachek first described the local end game as “better search, discovery, and engagement”. He even quoted the Cluetrain Manifesto’s “Markets are conversation”. He also talked about their latest global ad revenue forecast for 2007-2012, stating that the biggest category winner would be Internet and the biggest loser would be newspapers. As I wrote last week, the Kelsey group believes that Verticals will capture a large chunk of online advertising by 2012. Matt Booth then talked about three specific verticals (travel, automotive, home services) that have had a tremendous impact on offline/online business and media spending. For example, Matt showed two juxtaposed graphs showing the decline of newspapers’ automotive revenues vs. Autotrader.com’s revenue increase. Peter Krasilovsky finished the intro by stating that it’s now time to “uncouple” print and online media bundles. As print revenues decline, you need to have online-only ad products to compensate. Peter added that you also want to “verticalize” your offer to expand your revenues.

The second session “Remaking the Los Angeles Times (Online)” starred Rob Barrett, Senior VP of Interactive Media, GM, LATimes.com. He started by mentioning that most of what he’s currently working on is not very visible online now. He spent the first couple of years at the LA Times refocusing the online business. His main focus has been to build the display ad business (as opposed to classifieds). It’s going to generate $25M in revenues this year. Barrett says it’s now “time to finally break the newspaper paradigm online”. The LA Times’ online strategy needs to be local as opposed to national as it will allow them to differentiate their offer versus other “national” newspapers like the New York Times. They’ve realized that local users are key to online revenues as they generate more monthly page views and twice the display revenue per page views. Their product approach is “we want to own Los Angeles”, i.e. be integral to life of Angelinos, be the source of news and information about Los Angeles to the world and be an information retailer by creating, aggregating and curating LA content.

The Latimes.com web site is slowly transforming itself into a hyperlocal social network. All content pieces are going to be tagged and indexed by category and geography. By targeting on demographics and on geo, the LA Times is hoping to raise their average CPMs and improve ad effectiveness. They are creating the best targeting machine for the LA DNA. Barrett then showed us pilots of various new vertical sections that are very promising:

• The Travel section: http://travel.latimes.com
• A hyperlocal arts & entertainment guide: http://theguide.latimes.com
• Hollywood backlot to show pictures of movies shooting: launching next week
• User-generated photo and video content: photos & videos, http://yourscene.latimes.com
• The Homicide map: http://www.latimes.com/news/local/crime/homicidemap/

The Kelsey Group just issued a new forecast on online classifieds and verticals advertising:

While online advertising has been propelled primarily by search, banners, e-mail and lead generation, The Kelsey Group expects verticals to emerge as a key driver of online advertising by 2012. Based on trend analysis, the firm forecasts the U.S. interactive classified and vertical share of online advertising will grow from 18 percent in 2007 to 24 percent by 2012. Revenues for interactive classifieds and verticals will grow from US$3.9 billion to US$14.7 billion during the same forecast period, representing a 30.5 percent compound annual growth rate (CAGR).

During the forecast period, U.S. online classifieds will grow from US$3.9 billion to US$9.1 billion (18.6 percent CAGR) and online verticals (such as home services, home and garden, health care, legal and auto repair) will grow from US$100 million to US$5.6 billion (461.4 percent CAGR).

What it means: I’m a strong believer in the verticalization of the Web. So, directionally, I agree with those numbers. The first indication for me that this would be a big business was this article about Meganiches in Wired’s November 2006 issue. I forecast that the next big trend will be the “localization” (i.e. the addition of local content/business listings) of all those vertical sites.

A few weeks ago, with the release of the latest revenue numbers from the Newspaper Association of America, we were treated with very Chicken Little-esque headlines including “Decline Of US Newspapers Accelerating“, “NAA Reveals Biggest Ad Revenue Plunge in More Than 50 Years “ and ”NAA to newspapers: advertise this“. 

Highlights of these articles included:

• “Total print advertising revenue in 2007 plunged 9.4% to $42 billion compared to 2006″
• “Signs that online growth rate is beginning to slow as well. Internet ad revenue in 2007 grew 18.8% to $3.2 billion compared to 2006.”
• “But an even more important reason why paper ads are declining is that their cost-to-value ratio is way out of whack with what advertisers can get elsewhere, particularly the Internet.”

One reader in Techcrunch (a former journalist) had an especially enlightening comment:

Across the board, three dynamics are pretty consistently hammering nails into the dailies’ collective coffin faster than might be occur otherwise:

* Despite talk about fundamental disruption in the business, there’s still an attitude that this is a storm to be ridden out rather than a complete sea change. Even when the folks at the top (owners, publishers) get it, there are many, many layers of upper and middle managers who don’t — and who are afraid of losing head count because that somehow diminishes their authority.

* Sales has been given increasing control of the organization. Mind you, sales are crucial — but it’s hard to find a group of folks less strategic than salespeople on commission.

* Too many lifers. When you get into key operational areas (marketing, product development, news management) you find a lot of people who’ve been in the daily news business their whole careers, which isn’t necessarily bad, but nor is it a hotbed of innovation. What’s more shocking is the number of people you run across who’ve been at the same paper for 15, 20 or 25 years.

Chris Anderson, Wired’s Editor-in-Chief, had a different take on things, one that I definitely agree with:

The truth is that the newspaper business is still a huge industry and will be around in one form or another for the rest of my life. That is not to dismiss the declines, but only to note that there’s still a lot of money there and what is required is strategic change, not giving up the ghost.

Growth industries are different from sunset industries, but in many cases the second category is larger (one example: the Yellow Pages is still a $16 billion business).  Managing companies on the way up takes a different set of skills than milking them for cash on the way down (and often different people, witness the buyout guys), but fortunes are just as often made the second way.

What people forget is that industries peak at the top. Which is to say, at the very time that the first and second derivative people are writing off a business, those who can stand back and see the value still left in it can make a mint. Laugh at newspapers if you will, but I’ll bet some private equity firm out there is looking at the chart above and licking their chops.

With all this doom and gloom, I was pleasantly surprised when the Canadian Newspaper Association released their numbers last week.  Highlights from the Financial post and The Windsor Star:

• “Revenue at Canadian newspapers fell about one per cent last year”
• “The healthier financial picture in Canada reflects newspapers that are doing a better job maintaining their readership numbers”
• “a 30 per cent rise in online advertising revenue offsetting a two per cent drop on the print side.”
• “The ongoing challenge for newspaper companies (…) is to figure out how to use print content in digital form across various platforms such as home computers or mobile devices.”
• “The narrative about newspapers in the U.S. has been consistently negative in recent years, and that negativity has unduly influenced perceptions of the health of the newspaper industry in Canada”

What it means: as I don’t know the intricacies of both regions in the newspaper industry, it’s very difficult for me to comment on the why of those major differences.  But it’s something we also see in the directory industry, where Canada (or by proxy Yellow Pages Group) usually experiences better financial results than its US peers.  From a newspaper usage perspective, I do have one recent ”focus group of one” anecdote though.  Ever since I got my HTC Touch with a cheap unlimited data plan from Bell Mobility, I find myself reaching for the phone much more often than the printed newspaper when I have a few minutes during the day.  Radio-Canada (the French CBC) has become my default source for mobile news as they refresh their feed very often, have tons of original content and have a mobile-specific version.  If I (a self-proclaimed newspaper junkie) am reaching for the phone instead of the paper, it’s a sure sign that mobile will be next opportunity/challenge facing the newspaper industry and I think it will be the same in the directory business.

Annual revenues from mobile search services are expected to hit $4.8 billion by 2013, according to a new report from Juniper Research. Among the factors driving growth are the decline of carriers’ “walled garden” approach, falling data costs and the entrance of search heavyweights such as Google and Yahoo.

Local search will be the most popular service among advertisers, attracting 40% of mobile search ad spending over the next five years. Globally, China and the Far East are expected to generate most revenues from mobile search in the coming years, followed by Western Europe and North America.

(via Online Media Daily)

Related update: Matt Waddell, a product manager for Google mobile said in a Reuters interview: “We have very much hit a watershed moment in terms of mobile Internet usage. We are seeing that mobile Internet use is in fact accelerating.”

Second related update: M:Metrics reports on iPhone feature usage: “Two featured widgets, YouTube and Google Maps, are extremely popular among iPhone users: 30.4 percent accessed YouTube and 36 percent used Google Maps. In comparison, only one percent of all mobile subscribers accessed YouTube and 2.6 percent checked out Google Maps.”

What it means: more indication that local mobile search is about to happen.

Just received the press release announcing the new interactive ad revenue forecast by The Kelsey Group. Highlights:

Global (2007-2012):

• Ad revenues (currently at $600B) to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.7 percent and reach US$707 billion in 2012.
• Interactive ad revenues will increase from US$45 billion in 2007 to US$147 billion in 2012 (a 23.4 percent CAGR).
• Directional advertising, which comprises local search, print Yellow Pages and Internet Yellow Pages (IYP), will go from US$33.3 billion in 2007 to US$41.4 billion in 2012 (4.5 percent CAGR)
• Local search revenues will grow from US$2.1 billion to US$6.6 billion (25.5 percent CAGR).
• Print Yellow Pages revenues will decline from US$27.5 billion to US$25.6 billion (-1.4 percent CAGR).
• IYP revenues will grow from US$3.7 billion to US$9.2 billion (20.1 percent CAGR).

US (2007-2012)

• Interactive advertising revenues: from US$22.5 billion to US$62.4 billion (22.6 percent CAGR)
• Directional advertising revenues: from US$16.4 billion to US$18.8 billion (2.8 percent CAGR)

Canada (2007-2012)

• Interactive revenues: from US$1.3 billion to US$3.3 billion (21.3 percent CAGR).
• Directional revenues: from US$1.4 billion to US$1.9 billion (5.8 percent CAGR).
• “Canada is one of the markets in which The Kelsey Group expects growth in the print Yellow Pages segment, forecasting a 1.8 percent CAGR for print directories in Canada during the forecast period.”

According to Charles Laughlin from the Kelsey Group, they expect “printed directory revenues to decline in most global markets over the forecast period, though print will remain the most important source of leads for small businesses. For directory publishers to succeed, they will need to invest time, energy and resources in both channels to minimize the decline in print and maximize the opportunity online.”

Reporting on the same press release, MediaPost added that “ the forecast does not include mobile ad platforms.”

Update: Techcrunch chimes in.

AT&T held an analyst conference today and Ray Wilkins, Group President - Diversified Businesses, was presenting the “advertising and search” portion of the allocution. The presentation shows that YellowPages.com currently generates approximately $550M in revenues and that AT&T is aiming at more than $1B in revenues in 2010 for the site. They also expect a good revenue lift from advertising appearing in U-verse, their interactive television product.

Other interesting data points include:

• Print and Online Ebitda margins in the mid-40% range in the next three years
• Mobility advertising starting end of 2008
• 2 billion search queries in 2008 and 3 billion by 2010.

You can find the slides (.pdf) here.

(found on PaidContent.org)

Nicholas Carr reports on a Guardian story about a site called YouDeparted.com. According to the article, users of the site “can issue posthumous instructions for everything from their funeral to feeding their pet, cancelling bills and magazine subscriptions, organising their will and other financial matters, sending final letters to friends - and foes - and delivering a valedictory video address summing it all up.”

This new service reminds me of a conversation I had last week at the Kelsey conference with Peter K. and some folks from Quebecor Media. I was discussing my interest in a web site called Find a Grave where you can search and find famous graves from all over the world. I started to wonder about the opportunity in online obituaries classified ads. It must be a good revenue generator for newspapers and I suspect those revenues can only go up.

While researching the subject, I found that many important US newspapers are using the outsourced services of Legacy.com. They describe themselves as “the leading provider of online obituary solutions for the newspaper industry. Legacy.com enhances obituaries with guest books, funeral home information, and florist links, providing a community-oriented, content-rich solution for more than 400 newspapers. Visited by more than 7 million users each month, Legacy.com provides links to obituaries published by the company’s network of newspaper affiliates. Through this network, Legacy.com posts obituaries and Guest Books for one in two people who die in the U.S. each day. ”

Founded in 1998, the company has many investors including Tribune Company. According to this Chicago Sun-Times article, Legacy.com had 50 employees and $10M in revenues in 2005.

TechCrunch offers a list of new start-ups operating in the space they call “the holy grail of mobile social networking”: “physical presence detection and information exchange with other users.”

Aka-Aki (Germany): “create a profile and download the java app to your phone. You can also create and join groups that say things about your life, job, etc. When you are near other people who are members, data about you is transmitted to them via bluetooth, and vice versa. Users have control over data flow with privacy settings.”

Imity (Denmark): “it detects other members via bluetooth and send basic profile information to your phone. It also keeps track of people on its website, so you can check that out periodically from your normal computer. It’s bridges mobile and traditional social networks, which may help it gain critical mass.”

MeetMoi (USA): “it uses text messaging to help connect people. It’s dating focused - text your location to the service and it notifies other users in your area that you are there. If they are interested, they can contact you.”

MobiLuck (France): it “is another bluetooth solution similar to Aka-Aki and Imity. Download the software to your phone and it vibrates when other users are nearby. You can then chat with them, send photos, etc.”

BrightKite (USA): “serves location based notifications (”place streaming”) over email, instant messaging of text messages. The idea is to stream content about a place, from a place. Friends are alerted when you are nearby. You receive offers from local businesses. Etc. Targeted towards conferences, bars, parties and public places. It is also a platform for third party applications.”

What it means: Talking about critical success factors, TechCrunch mentions that “what’s harder is just plain getting a critical mass of users.” I would answer that’s only one side of the equation. The other one is monetization and I believe local advertising plays a key role there. If you operate a local play, you should be thinking hard about your mobile strategy today. My gut feeling is that we’re 18-24 months from real breakthroughs in local mobile advertising but, when that happens, it might become a very important source of revenues. How big? The Kelsey Group just released a report on US mobile search advertising revenues and they forecast that it will reach $1.4B in 2012.

As an interesting segue to my VoiceStar/Marchex blog post from last week, MediaPost offers an interview with Bill Day, their new Chief Media Officer in which he talks about the importance of local for Marchex. “Kaufman Brothers analyst Sameet Sinha questioned the company’s heavy investment in local search at this moment, after the announcement it would buy pay-per-call ad provider VoiceStar. It happened to be the first official day at work for new Chief Media Officer Bill Day, most recently at WhenU, but also a co-founder of About.com and one of the online pioneers of the ’80s at Prodigy. He was nothing but optimistic about the opportunity for local.”

Highlights:

Q: Why is the time right now for local? When we did it at About.com, it was too early. The interest area was the place to invest. Things have changed. First of all, many more people use the Internet. If you want to have a pro-sumer model, you need one that scales to be very comprehensive. Marchex is a leader. It already has thousands and thousands and thousands of sites. You also need a model that can get really really deep within those localities. I did a lot of diligence coming in and with the Yellow Pages advertisers now coming on, it suggests it really is a good time to invest in local. You have to invest to reap the rewards.

Q: What is the first thing you’ll do in your new job? The first thing is to focus on the continued rollout of our open list technology populating businesses down to the ZIP code level (editor’s note: e.g. 90210.com). I’m also talking to media companies in the local space. There’s a lot of business development I need to do to get the ball rolling.

Q: Who is doing local right? There are certainly sites that get parts of it right. I can’t point to one network that gets it right consistently. I don’t know anything countrywide. The sites that tend to do that are using very stale and automated generic content that is not good enough to get repeat visitation. I’ve looked at some of the WashingtonPost.com sites, what Sidewalk’s done for Digital Cities. We’re in a pretty open space for starting to do things that haven’t been done so far on the net–to truly create a broad, deep network of sites.

What it means: Marchex believes online revenue action in the future will happen on the local and hyperlocal front. They’ve acquired web real estate (local URLs) and local content. They have solid search engine optimization (SEO) expertise and they now want to introduce user-generated content. Using all of these tools, they’re building a large-scale local ad network. The only thing I would question is the quality of traffic coming from SEO, as not all clicks are born equal. Measuring ROI will become key when evaluating the quality of local search traffic but, as I believe a good chunk of the revenues in local will happen around pay-per-call in the next 5-10 years, the acquisition of VoiceStar makes complete sense strategically. That’s a great way to measure and prove local search ROI.

The Kelsey Group’s blog reports on a possible sale by Sensis of their Trading Post classified property.

After being one of the first directory companies to enter the classified market, Telstra’s Sensis has placed its Trading Post property for sale. According to a report in The Age, “Sensis paid $636 million for the fading publication three years ago, but after continuous revenue declines and senior executive departures, The Trading Post is back on the block for a price believed to be no higher than the telco paid in March 2004.”

The motivation to sell the property seems to have come after the departure of John King, who appeared to be the last major supporter of the venture. This is startling news given Sensis’ much touted strategy of bringing together businesses and consumers in an open trading environment. Sensis has had the golden touch with most of its ventures, so the failure of The Trading Post seems at odd with the company’s goal of being the local media of choice in Australia.

The The Age article adds:

It it is clear that revenue from the publication has been declining, despite growing revenue in the wider $10 billion Sensis empire. Sensis said revenues at The Trading Post were down 7 per cent in the six months to December. The sale of The Trading Post will be the latest in a long line of unsuccessful attempts by Telstra to diversify, including a number of dot-com ventures and troubled joint ventures in Asia. (…) Sources close to the company said attempts to centralise management functions at the previously independent publication had backfired. Broking analysts believe the group did not have the management skills to shift customers online from the weekly print publication.

James Kirby, editor of Eureka Report, adds in an editorial: ” With the planned sale of The Trading Post, Telstra is acknowledging it does not have the expertise in traditional media to recreate the publication as a successful print/online hybrid, which it must become to survive.”

What it means: in a really surprising move, Sensis seems to be interested in selling back their classified division they bought just a few years ago from Trader Corp. It’s a move I don’t understand. Did they paint themselves in a corner by promising to double revenues by 2010, a tall order indeed? In any case, in a world where the winner will be the
one who controls the data, this is, IMHO, not necessarily a good move by Sensis.